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History's greatest financial fall: How it began
"The United States is so broke, its people at every level -- from the Federal Reserve on down -- don't know whether to shit or go blind," wrote James Howard Kunstler an American author and social critic - in one of his blogs.
But what unprecedented events led to this great financial catastrophe? As an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal puts it, "With the benefit of hindsight, everyone can see that the US economy built up an enormous credit bubble that has now popped. . . this bubble was created principally by a Federal Reserve that kept real interest rates too low for too long. In doing so the Fed created a subsidy for debt and a commodity price spike."
The Fed's 'cheap money' policy created artificial demand for housing which drove prices to unsustainable levels. As greed took over, dubious sub-prime liabilities were sold to hedge funds, insurance companies and foreign banks. And then the American financial markets were hit by a severe liquidity and credit crunch. High oil tags, lower spending by the corporate sector, rising unemployment, etc added to the woes of not just the Americans, but the entire world.
"Fastening your seat belts may not be enough for this ride. Better superglue yourselves to the floorboards and pray for God's mercy," concludes Kunstle
August 9, 2007 is the official date when the crisis is said to have hit global finances. But the rot had started much earlier.
In 2006, the US housing market started to feel the pain of high interest rates -- which, between 2004 and 2006, had risen from one per cent to 5.35 per cent -- resulting in default rates on *sub-prime loans rising to record level.(*High risk loans to customers with poor or no credit histories).
February 22, 2007: HSBC fires head of its US mortgage lending business as losses reach $10.5 billion. On February 23, the Bombay Stock Exchange's sensitive index -- the Sensex -- ended down 356 points at 13,656. (Because of the time difference between India and the US , the market figures are of those a day later)
March 8, 2007: Biggest US house builder DR Horton warns of huge losses from sub-prime fall-out.
March 12, 2007: Shares in New Century Financial, one of the biggest sub-prime lenders in the US , were suspended amid fears it might be heading for bankruptcy.
Sensex gained 80 points to close at 12,983 on March 13.
March 13, 2007: Wall Street hit by sub-prime fears and on March 14, the sell-off on US and Asian markets saw the Sensex close with a loss of 453 points at 12,530. The NSE Nifty closed at 3,641, down 130 points.
March 16: US-based sub-prime firm Accredited Home Lenders Holding said it would sell $2.7 billion of its sub-prime loan book -- at a heavy discount -- in order to generate some cash.
On March 19, the Indian market closed at 12,645, up 215 points.
April 2 2007: New Century Financial, which was once the second-largest originator of subprime mortgages in United States files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and lays off 3,299 people.
Sensex gained 169 points to close at 12,625 on April 3, 2007.
May 3, 2007: GM finance unit loses heavily on sub-prime mortgages, and UBS closes its US sub-prime lending arm, Dillon Read Capital Management.
Sensex ends down 144 points at 13,934, on May 4.
June 22, 2007: Investment bank Bear Stearns revealed it had spent $3.2 billion bailing out two of its funds exposed to the sub-prime market. The bailout of the fund was the largest by a bank in almost a decade.
The Index ended with a gain of 21 points at 14,488.
July 18, 2007: Bear Stearns rings the warning bell. It tells investors that they will get l ittl e, if any, of the money invested in two of its hedge funds after rival banks refuse to help it bail them out.
The India market was unrattled by the news, and it closed with a gain of 249 points at 15,550, on July 19.
July 20, 2007: US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke warns that the US sub-prime crisis could cost up to $100 billion.
The Sensex continued with its march and ended up 167 points at 15,732 on July 23.
July 27, 2007: Worries about the sub-prime crisis hammered global stock markets and the main US Dow Jones stock index slipped.
The Sensex was no exception as it ended down 542 points on that day.
July 31, 2007: Bear Stearns stopped clients from withdrawing cash from a third fund, saying it has been overwhelmed by redemption requests. The lender also filed for bankruptcy protection for the two funds it had to bail out earlier.
Next day, that is, August 1, the Sensex ended with a hefty loss of 645 points at 14,936. The NSE Nifty ended at 4,346, down 183 points. Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong 's Hang Seng slumped 730 points to 22,455. Japan 's Nikkei plunged 378 points to 16,871. Taiwan 's Taiwan Weighted index crashed 395 points to 8892, and China 's Shanghai Composite index shed 170 points at 4,301.
August 6, 2007: American Home Mortgage, one of the largest US independent home loan providers, filed for bankruptcy after laying off the majority of its staff.
And Sensex ended down 235 points on that day and on August 7 it gained 30 points at close.
August 9, 2007 French banking major, BNP Paribas announced that it could not fairly value the underlying assets in three funds -- Parvest Dynamic ABS, BNP Paribas ABS Euribor and BNP Paribas ABS Eonia -- as a result of exposure to US subprime mortgage lending markets.
Faced with potentially massive exposure, the European Central Bank immediately stepped in to ease market worries by opening lines of euro 96.8 billion (then $130 billion) in low-interest credit. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan also intervened.
On August 10, 2007, the Sensex marginally shrugged off the US subprime woes and closed with a loss of 232 points at 14,868
August 16, 2007: Largest mortgage lender Countrywide draws on its entire $11.5 billion credit line as liquidity crisis looms. Australian mortgage lender Rams also admits liquidity problems.
And on August 17, the Sensex tanks 217 points at 14,142
August 17, 2007: The Fed cut the rate at which it lends to banks by half of a percentage point to 5.75 per cent, and once more warns of credit crunch.
Taking cues from the global markets following the surprise 50bps rate cut by the US Fed on Friday (Aug 17), the Sensex closed with a gain of 286 points at 14,427 on Monday. The NSE Nifty ended at 4,209, up 101 points.
August 21, 2007: UK sub-prime lenders begin to withdraw mortgages.
On August 22, the Sensex ended with a gain of 260 points at 14,249.
August 28, 2007: Leipzig , Germany based Sachsen LB Landesbank faced collapse after investing in the sub-prime market. Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg buys it for euro 250m. It was one of Europe 's biggest victims of the credit crisis.
But the ripple effect had not touched the Indian markets and the Sensex ended with a gain of 74 points at 14,993. NSE Nift closed up 39 points at 4,359 on August 29.
September 3, 2007 German corporate lender IKB announces a a loss of $1bn on investments linked to the US sub-prime market.
Sensex gained 43 points on September 4 to close at 15,465.
September 4, 2007: London Interbank Offered Rate or *Libor rate rises to 6.7975%, highest since December 1998. (*It is the rate of interest at which banks offer to lend money to one another).
Bank of China reveals $9bn in sub-prime losses but Chinese government said its foreign exchange reserves will not be affected
The Sensex ended September 5 with a marginal loss of 19 points at 15,446. The NSE Nifty ended at 4,476, down 3 points.
September 14, 2007: British bank, Northern Rock, which relied heavily on the markets, rather than savers' deposits to fund its mortgage lending asked for and was granted emergency financial support from the Bank of England. The bank is now owned by the UK government.
On September 17 the Index closed with a loss of 99 points at 15,504.
September 18, 2007: The US Federal Reserve cut its main interest rate by half a percentage point for the first time in four years, to 4.75 per cent, a move that resulted in a strong rally across the globe.
On September 19, the Sensex ended with its biggest-ever single-day gain of 654 points at 16,323. The Nifty gained 186 points to close at 4,732.
September 19, 2007: The Bank of England announces that it will auction pound 10 billion.
The Sensex gained 25 points at 16,348 on September 20. The Nifty gained 15 points to close at 4,748.
October 1, 2007: Swiss bank UBS world's biggest bank announced losses of $3.4 billion from sub-prime related investments. Later investment bank chairman and chief executive officer Huw Jenkins stepped down.
Citigroup unveils a sub-prime related loss of $3.1 billion. Two weeks later Citigroup is forced to write down a further $5.9 billion. Within six months, its losses stand at a whopping $40 billion. On November 5, its chief executive and chairman Charles Prince resigned.
On October 3, Sensex nears 18K, ends up 561 points. The NSE Nifty ended at 5211, up 142 points
October 5, 2007: Investment bank Merrill Lynch reveals $5.6 billion sub-prime losses. On October 30, Merrill Lynch chief Stan O'Neal resigned.
Next day, the Sensex ended with a loss of 282 points at 17,491.
November 9, 2007: US's fourth largest lender Wachovia revealed a $1.1 billion loss due to decline in value of its mortgage debt plus $600m to cover loan losses (total $1..7 billion).
Sensex ends down 171 points.
November 12, 2007: The three biggest US banking groups -- Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorganChase -- agree to a $75 billion superfund to restore confidence to credit markets.
November 13, 2007: Bank of America writes off $3 billion in sub-prime losses.
Sensex bounced back and ended up nearly 300 points.
November 14, 2007: Mizuho, Japan's second largest banking group, saw a 17 per cent drop in first-half net profits and cut its full-year operating profit forecast by 13 per cent, largely as a result of sub-prime-related losses at its securities arm.
On November 14, in one of the biggest ever rally, the Sensex zoomed 894 points, but the next day it ended down 144 points at 19,785.
November 15, 2007: British banking major Barclays said it had written down $2.6 billion in sub-prime losses.
Sensex ended down 87 points at 19,698 on November 16.
November 20, 2007: US mortgage guarantor Freddie Mac sets aside $1..2bn to cover bad loans and reports a $2bn loss.
Sensex ended with a loss of 678 points at 18,603 on November 21, one of the biggest single-day loss in absolute terms. The Nifty lost 220 points to close at 5,561.
December 4, 2007: US mortgage giant Fannie Mae issues $7 billion of shares to cover losses linked to the housing market.
On December 6, the Sensex ended up 58 points at 19,796.
December 6, 2007: President George W Bush outlines plans to protect more than a million homeowners hit by the US housing slump. The Bank of England cut UK interest rates for the first time since 2005, amid signs that the economy is slowing.
Sensex ended up 170 points at 19,966 on December 7.
December 10, 2007: Swiss bank UBS reports a further $10-billion write-down caused by bad debts in the US housing market. Lloyds TSB reveals that bad debt linked to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis will cost it pound 200 million.
December 11, 2007: Fed cut interest rates for a third time to 4.25 per cent to ease the credit crunch.
On December 12, the Sensex gained 85 points.
December 13, 2007: World central banks agree coordinated action to inject at least $100 billion into short-term inter-bank credit markets to restore confidence.
The Sensex, however, ended down 74 points at 20,031 on December 14.
December 19, 2007: Morgan Stanley writes off $9.4bn in sub-prime losses and sells a 9.9 per cent stake in the company to the Chinese state investment company CIC for $5bn to rebuild its capital.
Sensex ended up 71 points at 19,163 on December 20.
January 4, 2008: US unemployment rises sharply as job report sparks fall in stock market
Sensex remains unfazed and ends up 126 points on January 6.
January 7, 2008: President George W Bush admits that the credit crunch could slow the US economy in 2008, but says it is still fundamentally strong.
Sensex hits 21,000; ends up 61 points on January 8.
January 9, 2008: Bear Stearns boss James Cayne steps down after the firm reveals $1.9 billion in sub-prime losses, the largest in its history.
World Bank said that world economic growth will slow in 2008 due to credit crunch, but strong performance in China and India will cushion impact.
The Sensex ended with a loss of 288 points at 20,582 on January 10.
January 15, 2008: Citigroup, the largest bank in the US , reported a $9.8 billion loss for the fourth quarter and wrote down $18 billion in sub-prime losses.
Sensex tumbled to a low of 19,513, down 738 points on January 16.
January 28, 2008: Belgian bank Fortis warned its losses connected to bad US mortgage debt could be as high as $1.47 billion.
Sensex ended down 61 points at 18,091.
January 29, 2008: The US Federal Bureau of Investigation launched an investigation into 14 companies involved in the sub-prime mortgage crisis.
Sensex continued to be in the red, as it ended down 333 points at 17,759 on January 30.
January 30, 2008: The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates to 3% from 3.5%. It was the second cut in nine days. US economic growth slowed.
Sensex ends down 110 points at 17,649 on January 31.
February 5, 2008: US financial firm GMAC, which owns sub-prime lender Residential Capital, said it has made a $2.3 billion loss in 2007, compared with a $2.1 billion profit the year before.
February 6, 2008: Wall Street saw its worst share losses in almost a year, amid fears that the worst US housing slump in 25 years is crippling the wider economy..
On February 7 the Sensex closed with a loss of over 600 points at 17,527. The NSE Nifty closed with a loss of 190 points at 5,133.
February 10, 2008: Leaders from the G7 group of industrialised nations said worldwide losses from the US mortgage crisis could reach $400 billion.
Sensex shed 834 points to close at 16,631 on February 11.
February 12, 2008: Swiss bank Credit Suisse said losses on sub-prime investments were $1.8 billion. Sensex ends up 341 points.
February 13, 2008: Britain 's Bradford & Bingley cut the value of its sub-prime mortgage-related investments by $284.5 million. Japan 's financial watchdog said Japanese banks suffered losses of $5.6 billion by the end of 2007.
The Sensex closed with a huge gain of 817 points at 17,764 on February 14.
February 14, 2008: Commerzbank , Germany 's second-biggest bank, cut $1.1 billion off the value of investments linked to the sub-prime mortgage crisis and warned its losses could worsen.
March 7, 2008: The former bosses of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup were questioned by a Congressional panel over their bumper pay -- despite huge, sub-prime related bosses at their banks.
The Sensex ended the day with a marginal loss of 52 points at 15,924 on March 10. The NSE Nifty finished with a gain of 29 points at 4,800.
March 11, 2008: Central banks made another coordinated attempt to ease conditions in the credit markets, by announcing $200 billion of new emergency lending for banks.
March 14, 2008: Investment fund Carlyle Capital failed as the credit crisis spreads from sub-prime related products to other mortgage-backed investments.
Bear Stearns received emergency funding, after its exposure to mortgage-backed investments undermined confidence in the bank.
And on March 17, Sensex ended with a hefty loss of 951 points at 14,809 -- one of its biggest single-day falls.
March 17, 2008: Wall Street investment bank Bear Stearns was acquired by JPMorgan Chase for $240m, a fraction of its share price, in deal backed by $30 billion in Fed loans.
The bank got into trouble over its huge exposure to sub-prime mortgage-backed securities..
The Sensex settled at 14,833 -- up 24 points. The NSE Nifty ended with a gain of 30 points at 4,533.
March 18, 2008: Wall Street investment banks Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers revealed that their first quarter profits have been halved by the credit crunch.
On March 19, Sensex gained 161 points.
March 31, 2008: US Treasury announced major package to reform regulation of US financial markets and prevent future financial crises.
Sensex ends down 18 points.
May 22, 2008: Swiss bank UBS, one of the worst affected by the credit crunch, launches a $15.5bn rights issue to cover some of the $37bn it lost on assets linked to US mortgage debt.
Sensex fell 336 points on May 23.
June 19, 2008: The FBI arrests 406 people, including brokers and housing developers, as part of a crackdown on alleged mortgage frauds worth $1 billion.
Separately, two former Bear Stearns workers faced criminal charges related to the collapse of two hedge funds linked to sub-prime mortgages. It is alleged they knew of the funds' problems but did not disclose them to investors, who lost a total of $1.4 billion.
Sensex ends down 278 points on June 23.
July 13, 2008: US mortgage lender IndyMac collapsed -- the second-biggest bank in US history to fail.
On July 14, the Sensex finally ended with a loss of 139 points at 13,331.
July 14, 2008: Financial authorities step in to assist America 's two largest lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As guarantors of $5 trillion worth of home loans, they are crucial to the US housing market and authorities agreed they could not be allowed to fail.
On July 15 Sensex tumbled by 654..32 points at 12,676.19, a level last seen on March 6, 2008.
September 5, 2008: US unemployment rate rose to 6.1%.
September 7, 2008: Mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- which account for nearly half of the outstanding mortgages in the US -- were rescued by the US government in one of the largest bailouts in US history.
On September 8 the Sensex rose by 461 points.
September 10, 2008: Wall Street bank Lehman Brothers posted a loss of $3.9 billion (�2.2 billion) for the three months to August.
Sensex traded in the negative and ended down 339 points at 14,339.
September 15, 2008: After days of searching frantically for a buyer, Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, becoming the first major bank to collapse since the start of the credit crisis.
US bank Merrill Lynch agreed to be taken over by Bank of America for $50 billion.
On September 17 Sensex declined by 255.90 points.
September 17, 2008: Insurer American International Group apparently was too big to fail. The mammoth insurer, which had been pushed to the brink of bankruptcy by problems originating in the US mortgage crisis, is being bailed out by the Federal Reserve.
The Fed will extend a 24-month bridge loan of $85.0 billion to the insurer, in return for an unprecedented acquisition of a 79.9 per cent stake in the firm by the central bank.
Barclays announces that it will buy Lehman US units for $1.75 billion.
In a sharp pull-back: Sensex recovered over 700 points, to end up 53 points on September 18.
September 19, 2008: The US government proposed to create a $700-billion rescue fund for the American financial sector.
The fund will be used to buy back bad debt from ailing US banks and other financial institutions.
President George W Bush urged the Congress to endorse his plan as soon as possible. Congress is expected to take a decision in the coming days.
The move increased the US public debt to $11.3 trillion.
The President said: "This is a big package because it was a big problem." He argued that the drastic measures were necessary to keep the economy going. The president admitted that the plan would be funded with tax money, but added that "over time, we're going to get a lot of the money back."
Relieved investors sent stocks soaring on Wall Street and around the globe. The Dow-Jones industrials average rose 368 points after surging 410 points the day before on rumours that the federal action was afoot.
The Sensex on September 19 ended with a significant gain of 5.5% (727 points) at 14,042. The NSE Nifty soared over 5% (207 points) to 4,245.
That, till now, is the scenario. If the events that led to the world's worst-ever financial crisis are not scary enough, some economists fear that this might not be the end of the problem. So will things worsen? Only time will tell. . .
More later!™
-n |
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